Litigation of war crimes committed in the course of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is possible, but…
Who and why shall become the litigation object? We discussed it with Mr. Valeriy Solovey, a Russian political observer.
Mr. Valeriy Dmitriyevich Solovey is a Russian Historian, Political Observer, Publicist and Public Activist. History Doctor. Professor and Head of Chair of Advertisement and Public Relations at the Moscow State Institute of Foreign Affairs in 2007-2019. Some of Mr. Solovey’s forecasts regarding the re-shuffling exercises in the Russian leadership proved to be true. Professor Solovey was right, when stating that Russia would unwind a military confrontation with Ukraine. Mr. Solovey was the source of the talks about the deterioration of Vladimir Putin’s health condition and later those talks were reproduced by numerous Russian and English-speaking Mass Media.
Mr. Solovey’s Interview Part 1 here.
Russian Leadership Issue Needs Radical Resolution
— Mr. Solovey, allow me to pass now to Your famous forecasts. In one of them, you prognosed that this year there will be a Palace Coup in Russia, initiated not by “those in the bottom”, but “those on top”. You said that behind that Palace Coup, there will be bodies of special enforcement. Will the successor come from that circle? Who might make such a successor and when will the power change happen? Will it be peaceful?
— I am not forecasting a Palace Coup in Russia. I say that it is particularly now and for the first time in the last 22 years, that Putin has been in the office of the President, that the opportunity of such a coup is continuously increasing. And the only force capable of running such a coup is the circle of those special bodies of enforcement. Those people today are highly dissatisfied with Putin, who comes from their community. They think that the present Head of State has transformed into a toxic asset, who brought the country to a dead-end and that Russia is close to a catastrophe.
Consequently, the country leadership issue requires radical resolution.
We can only make guesses as to, how they will resolve the issue, with what speed, assets and resources. As far as I know, the transition from thoughts to physical action is already taking place. But that will not be a single act, but, most likely, a long process, because Chekists (officers of the bodies of special enforcement) pay serious attention to the war dynamics. That is why the life-altering developments may happen this upcoming fall.
Crisis and Opportunities
— What awaits Russia after war, in the political and economic sense? What awaits President Vladimir Putin, personally? Will there be the new Nurnberg or Hague?
— Contrary to expectations, there will no economic and political catastrophe in Russia, although this country shall face a universal and a serious crisis. However, in the outcome of such crisis, the Russian statehood and society may face an opportunity outlet. The renewed Russia will develop a new strategy for internal development and foreign policy. And that strategy, to my mind, might be very righteous, winning and beneficial both for Russia and its neighbors.
I will remind, that throughout history,
those were particularly lost or unsuccessful wars that would, with high probability, put Russia on the trajectory of topical reforms and transformations.
One brightest example of that is, apparently, the Crimean War of 1853-1856 and Alexander the Second’s great reforms that followed.
As to the fate of the Russian President, I have no doubts that
he shall not find himself before a court. That is the particular development of events, that nobody is interested in
– either Russian elites or Western establishment. With the only exception for Ukrainian side.
Besides, I very much doubt there will be some loud international litigation. Yes, the Hague Tribunal shall investigate war crime. I am emphasizing that the Hague Tribunal shall investigate war crimes, particularly, — those committed in the course of armed confrontation by those the sides thereto – Russia and Ukraine.
Moscow may even take part in those litigations, for example, demonstrate that Russian is ready to have a dialogue with the world, even in regards to such sensitive affairs. The other thing is, that scapegoats shall face the court. That is not a question of cynicism. That is because the full acceptance of the powers of an international tribunal and the extradition of people, whom Russia shall deem guilty of the crimes against humanity, as well as war crimes, will mean diminishment of the sovereign status of the country. Even weakened, Russia is unlikely to be ready to go for it.
I, however, allow that Russian will eagerly extradite its own propaganda-warriors into the hands of the tribunal. Those are the front-men of the armed confrontation, that may be wasted easily.
Nobody Questions Existence of Putin’s Lookalikes
— You persistently report that Vladimir Putin has lookalikes. You say, that President’s address to the Federal Assembly was read by one person, while another person attended a public rally in Luzhniki. Are those Your personal observations or do you have some facts from insiders supporting that? What is the real condition of health of the Russian leader?
— Yes, Vladimir Putin does have lookalikes, two, as a minimum. One of them is almost identical and is very skillful in copying Putin’s voice. With this respect, I stand not on my personal observations, but the information coming from very informed sources – people positioned in the very center of the decision-making process.
By the way, to my mind,
they have ceased to deny the fact of existence of Putin’s lookalikes in Russia.
Some two years ago, when I was just beginning to discuss that, it all looked like an exercise in conspiracy theory. Today, more and more people acknowledge that those lookalikes exist. Let us take, for example, Putin mode of behavior, which has different patterns in different situations. In one case, that person will communicate with his visitors over a table, which is 10 meters long. In other cases, he will easily talk to people whom he does not know, almost giving them warm hugs.
One person cannot demonstrate such different lines of behavior.