War-time risks and threats are inclusive of not only hazards and dangers, but new opportunities, as well. Famous political observer Mr. Dosym Satpayev discusses what lessons Central Asian countries should learn from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and that they must consolidate.
With the growing geopolitical tension and since the start of the war in Ukraine, the countries of Central Asian faced not only new risks and threats, but also new opportunities.
First – augmentation of closer regional Central Asian cooperation. In doing so, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan could work as locomotives for such cooperation, thus replicating the examples of Germany and France in the European Union. In this field, countries need to mobilize their business communities, as the engine of regional cooperation.
The formation of the water-energy consortium of Central Asian countries could constitute the platform for closer interaction, because geopolitical challenges that Central Asia faces are all about environmental risks and future water shortage.
Countries of Central Asia need a network of cross-border trade-economic hubs. They need border-lines “with a human face” – the ones that would facilitate the traffic of people, goods and services.
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan already are developing the cross-border International Center of Industrial Cooperation “Central Asia”. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan plan to build an Industrial Trade-Logistics Center. Together with Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan plans to create a Grain Terminal.
Informational cooperation must become an instrument for construction of more trustful cooperation. The neighbors should know each other better, directly, not through informational intermediaries from other countries, which intermediaries may deliberately work to ignite tension inside the region.
Second – Central Asia must become an important transportation and logistics hub in Eurasia, particularly given the fact that Russia is now losing its place in the global system of transportation links.
Third – attraction of new investors.
Fourth – attraction of human capital from other countries.
Fifth – in the eyes of global economy, Central Asia could occupy an important niche in the sphere of technologic innovation and support to alternative energy supplies and energy saving technologies. Central Asia may become some sort of an analogue of the Silicon Valley, a territory developing renewable energy and exporting its achievements, as well as increasing the quantity of R&D patents in that promising segment of human activity.
For that, Central Asia needs to significantly increase investments into R&D, which R&D shall create no value without appropriate human capital.
Israel or South Korea are small countries, but they invest more than 4% of their GDPs in R&D. Sweden, Japan and Austria are leaders, who invest more than 3% of their GDPs in R&D. Those investments are, in addition to other factors, due to the fact that those countries do not have abundant oil and gas reserves, and other elements from the Mendeleyev Table.
Six – Central Asia must position itself as an important global nutritional security actor. For that, the region needs to modernize and develop its agribusiness with the emphasis on ecological products.
That particular scope of activity shall grow more important, because of climate changes, that already are seriously affecting the global agriculture and because of the growing population of the plant.
Seven – defense and security diversification.
Events in Ukraine are now being studied by military analysts in all countries, because war is the only time, when countries may assess the effectiveness of their military doctrines and the might of their armed forces. The countries today have a chance to study how the modern wars should and should not be conducted. That is a unique opportunity, that drills and picturesque military parades shall never substitute.
This war already has ruined the myth about the might of the Russian armed forces and weapon systems, as well as the myth of the effectiveness of the Russian military strategy and tactics. This war was a serious impact on the reputation of Russia as a military partner.
For Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the present Russo-Ukrainian war is an important case-study, a platform for a military reform and the modernization of the armed forces, taking into consideration the reality, that is changing telegraphically.
With respect to above, we may agree to the opinion expressed by a famous Azeri War Analyst Mr. Agil Rustamzade, which expert thinks that countries of Central Asia, Azerbaijan and Turkiya must strengthen their interaction in the sphere of design and manufacturing of modern arms and armaments with the gradual reduction of dependence on Russian military supplies.
It is clear, that it is unlikely that Russia and China will appreciate the strengthening of the positions of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in the post-Soviet territory, as well as their transformation into the core of the closer Central Asian regional cooperation. Also, Russia and China shall not appreciate the strengthening of the geopolitical role of the Organization of Turkic States.
Given the global and regional tension, countries of Central Asia must upgrade their regional identify and positioning at the global arena. In any case, USA, Russia, China, European Union and other geopolitical players only struggle for their interests, when they try to play their games in Central Asia. It is up to us to decide, what role we want to play in those games. Puppets or master-minds?
To be master-minds, we need to elaborate our own agenda for development of the region, minimize risks and not ignore the new opportunities. We must attract new partners, who would be ready to help us, not impose their own game-rules.
