Forecasts regarding the future of China are I virtue a political business, not economic considerations. That conclusion made be made, if we review the headlines of esteemed Western news agencies for the last several decades. Those agencies post forecasts that won’t come true.
Famous Orientalist Adil Kaukenov runs analysis of forecasts made by Western Mass Media about China in the last 25 years. Below are extracts from his telegram channel:
Forecasts or Political Order?
Journalists addressed myself with a question about the Western forecasts indicating that Chinese economy is about to collapse. The problem is that I have been reading about imminent Chinese economic collapse and ineffectiveness of their economic model since I began my Chinese studies in 1997.
Every year and every quarter, The Economist, The Bloomberg and others post gloomy forecasts. I will be true – as a person having his first exposure to Chinese specifics I was under strong impression. But DECADES pass, and those forecasts will not come true. This is when the blindest followers of The Economist should start thinking.
I admit, that Chinese economy has numerous problems – regional disproportion, necessity to modernize energy system, necessity to provide for colossal headcount, real estate bubble and others. But there are no countries without problems. Even the USA, the global hegemon, has monstrous systemic problems in healthcare, as well as armies of homeless and countless armed attacks on schools.
Headlines in Western Mass Media about Chinese Economic Collapse Since 1990.
Devaluing of Achievements
There is another nuance. Because USA and PRC are in political confrontation, Western Mass Media have the political order to highlight the ineffectiveness of any decisions made in China. For example, they will, at all times, criticize Chinese speed-trains, the others call “Chinese Miracle”.
Funny is, that European bullet-trains are always referred to as the top level of economic and engineering design. In other words, the bullet-train connection between Beijing and Shanghai, the population of which cities is 50 million, is nothing, but extravagancy, while the Berlin-Paris connection (6 million residents) is mankind’s breakthrough to stars.
How to Analyze Correctly?
When analyzing economic processes in China, we should take into consideration the general picture for at least 30-50 last years. Based on that, we will be able to assess the adequacy shown by Chinese leadership in response to various challenges.
A couple of years ago, China faced a severe energy crisis, but they made it out of it, — contrary to apocalyptic forecasts.
We also need to remember, that behind those negative forecasts there always are not only China’s opponents, but also people lobbying in favor of US-China relations in Washington. Such negative publications are aimed at destructing the image of China, as a dangerous enemy, because China is supposed to collapse on its own.
Point of No Return
Today, if we base our considerations on real scientific research, and not propaganda, we will see that Chinese economy has passed the point of no return, that is why Chinese economic collapse poses threat to not only China and Asia, but the whole world.
That is why, the domino effect will happen, only if the whole planet undergoes some global destructive processes.
Let us be reminded that even Covid-19 failed to ruin Chinese economy, although when the first quarantines were introduced, some people forecasted total collapse of Chinese industrial chains.
That is why, despite the sharp rivalry taking place between China and USA, we should not be anticipating the collapse of the Chinese economy.
