In his Telegram channel, Daniyar Ashimbayev doubts that officials have any understanding of the comprehensive development of the country.
During parliamentary hearings, the Speaker of the Senate, Maulen Ashimbayev, stated:
«Kazakhstan, in order to develop, needs to increase its population to 30-40 million people in the next 10 years.» At the same time, he immediately stated, «we must understand that the development of our territory, plus the development of some innovative directions, the creation of promising industrial enterprises requires specialists, who need to be attracted from abroad if we do not have such specialists.»
According to him, without the specified population growth,
«in the next decade, it will be very difficult for us to develop the ninth territory in the world. We are all proud that we have the ninth territory in the world, but how do we develop it? We need human resources.»
This way of framing the problem, in my opinion, raises a lot of questions, writes Daniyar Ashimbayev.
Potential Risks
Firstly, it is clear that this is a repetition of the old thesis that in order to form internal demand and diversify the economy, the population needs to be doubled or tripled. That is, according to this logic, we need not just 30 million people, but 30 million consumers.
From this comes the second question: do the economic, geographic, and environmental conditions of the country allow for increasing demographic growth?
We have already faced a water shortage (and the problem, even according to the government’s optimistic forecasts, will only grow). Sooner or later, the state may also be concerned about the problem of a shortage of clean air.
Agriculture, which is required to develop export potential, has long ceased to cover the needs of the domestic market. The government and ASPiR in their programs and concepts point to further urbanization («as in developed countries»), but megacities with the task of «sewage» of excess population are already failing. No matter how many general plans are drawn up, it is quite obvious that their infrastructure and resource base (land, water, electric and thermal energy) are bursting at the seams.
Infrastructure development (schools, hospitals, kindergartens), as well as the training and development of the corresponding personnel, are not keeping pace with demographic growth.
The project «Comfortable Schools» in its mass will end with the fact that funds confiscated in the framework of future criminal cases regarding still under construction and planned facilities will be planned to build even more comfortable schools.
Real Risks
The next question, which has already shifted from potential risks to real ones, is the shortage of jobs. Currently, temporary and fictitious jobs are being created under state programs; industrialization and diversification programs, excuse me, are creating spot employment. The government plans to develop artificial intelligence and even expressed concern about possible unemployment among robots.
Based on existing trends, it can be confidently assumed that there will be a regular increase in the share of unskilled labor and a growing deficit of jobs for qualified specialists. Given that, as the Speaker of the Senate correctly noted,
«the development of our territory, plus the development of some innovative directions, the creation of promising industrial enterprises requires specialists, who need to be attracted from abroad if we do not have such specialists.»
And we have very few specialists, and there is no real hope that the personnel shortage can be filled.
In principle, the planned population growth will create a demand for the development of public administration, which, however, does not bring any income itself. But it will be possible to launch the national project «Comfortable Akimat» [regional executive bodies].
No one really deals with demographic policy in the country, but the much-talked-about idea of creating a Ministry of Labor and Migration Policy, which would deal with issues of training and retraining of personnel, management of migration processes, labor safety, and protection of labor rights, is not liked by anyone special. For the reason that it should be synchronized with systemic industrial, agricultural, and regional policies, as well as efficient state management.
But this is a rhetorical question.
Lack of Comprehensive Vision
Let’s return to the regional aspect. The population resettlement program from southern Kazakhstan to the north predictably failed (or is still failing). The Governor of SKO proposed sharply increasing financial incentives. How will this affect the existing model, when people from the south move to the north, receive benefits and real estate, and then move back — the governor did not specify. The point is zero.
There has been no comprehensive vision for the development of regions in the country. The government and quasi-governmental bodies are on one level, akimats are on another. They intersect only to shift responsibility for one failure or another (droughts, floods, investments) onto each other. Such structures as, for example, GASKs or land inspections, have been going back and forth for many years — and it is not going well.
The topic of the hearings was indicated as follows:
«Population growth — the basis of the nation’s strategic advantage.»
But we have situations of population growth mainly in the southern regions of the country. What is the strategic advantage here? Southern regions lead in poverty and unemployment. These problems have become a self-replicating phenomenon. No matter how much financial investment is directed there, this fundamentally does not change the situation.
There is also Mangystau — the only region where there is both natural population growth (1st place in the country) and a positive balance of internal migration. The state seriously increased the volume of budgetary injections, and the region for the first time moved from the category of budget donors to recipients. But did this change the situation? Not at all: the region faces a water deficit, a shortage of agricultural land, and a lack of jobs — and everyone wants to work in the «oil industry.»
Thus, the model of further development of Kazakhstan’s «strategic advantage» as demographic growth is in dire need of critical analysis.
