On the day of inauguration of President Tokayev, a 300 men unendorsed public gathering took place in Astana.  Local publics reported that those were young persons, who attempted to attack and take over the Akorda (Residence of the President).  The gathering was dispersed by police. 

That gathering, we should admit, shocked not only local Mass Media and police, but foreign countries, as well.  All sorts of Telegram-channels and Russian Mass Media discussed various theories of conspiracy – revanchists willing to repeat the January 2022 riots, an intro into a coup,struggle among Kazakh tribal unions (Zhuzes) and others.  Some participants of the gathering had red stripes on with the Uly Zhuz (The Senior/Elder Tribal Union) name on them.

The individual behind that manifestation was a famous Kazakh billionaire Marat Abiyev.  He claims that he managed to honestly, and without any lobbyist protection, earn USD 11 million, after which achievement, in 2013, he was included into the Forbes Kazakhstan lists. 

But soon enough Marat Abiyev lost his Forbes place to another miracle of “honest enrichment” – Kayrat Kudaibergen, which individual is now in jail under investigation as one of the active participants/inspirers of the January 2022 riots.  What a strange coincidence!

Architects of Future – Are They a Sect?

Marat Abiyev is the founder of a certain Genezis public association, which entity position themselves as “those fighting corruption and architects of the future”. Their main political slogan is “Improved Genetics”.  Does it not remind us of the Third Reich, Adolf Hitler and Nazism?

Architects of Future claim the role of the force to build New Kazakhstan. One of the novelties they suggest is the abolishment of Prosecution-General and introduction of the Institution of Biys (Biy – Kazakh for Judge/Justice). The scope of powers of those Biys is vague.  Instead of criminal intelligence and anti-corruption force they suggest a community of young lads with appropriate physique. 

Abiyev declares that he personally will exercise the justice in regards to corrupt officials, caught hot-handed.

I need 10 thousand Muscles with strong character.  Together with me, they will fight corruption.  If some corruption scum insults one of our men, we will bring them abroad, where I will personally deal with them.

Abiyev said in interview to a famous Kazakh blogger Alibekov.

In that interview, he also reported that he had personally put some 15 corruptors in jail and made sure that the same happened to another 1,000. That is strange. Does he not trust his own Institute of Biys, which is yet to come into existence?

The above is not the only oddity about Abiyev’s line of behavior and course of action. 

Cancelled Concerto

On 8 May, 2022, Abiyev made an attempt to organize a big concerto with pop-celebrities in the Barys Arena Sports Center. On the D-day, buses with young lads from various provinces of Kazakhstan made attempts to infiltrate the capital city, Astana. Police intercepted all those buses. Later, it was revealed that the concerto was a fake and there were no plans to have that event in Astana. The administration of Barys Arena, as well as MTEXmanagement, the company that manages sports and cultural objects in the city had to make a public address, confronting announcements about the concerto.

The “Agent-Provocateur” did not grief long and spent all cash, appropriated for the show, to organize the Tusau Keser ceremony for his 1-year old daughter (Tusau Keser, an ancient nomadic ritual, in the course of which a child’s legs are first tied with a rope, and then someone respected and reputable cuts those ropes, thus encouraging a child to begin to walk). Luckily, he did not invite his Muscles to cut that rope.  

The above, however, is not the last of Abiyev’s oddities.   

Panem Et Circenses (Bread and Curcus)!

Mr. Abiyev leads the so-called TDFA project, which is supposed to “rescue the world from global-scale famines”. For rescuing the planet, he created a special agricultural corporation.  All it took, was to get USD 7 billion from an anonymous investor from Europe and 5 million hectares of land from the Government of Kazakhstan, where he would plant “super-cereals”. Those cereals would then be exported and excessive amounts were supposed to be given to starving Africa. 

Abiyev managed to illegally come into possession of a handful of those magic grains cultivated somewhere in Canada. And then came a major Mass Media scandal. The Head of the Canadian Plant Technology Agency Lorne Hadley declared that some anonymous buyers from Kazakhstan were making attempts to smuggle from Canada some wheat seeds. Mr.Hadley also described those Kazakh buyers as very aggressive and recommended to Canadian farmers to avoid any contacts with them.

The history is silent, where exactly in our vast prairies Abiyev planted those seeds and how much wheat he harvested to save those suffering from starvation in Africa. It does not matter. Abiyev achieved his goal – he became much-touted, and not only Kazakh, but also Canadian Mass Media had to pay attention to his personality.

Meeting or PR Action?

Now let us try to explore what happened in Astana on the day of inauguration of our President.

Abiyev states that shortly prior to the elections of the President, some influential officials approached him with a request to temporarily suspend Genezis. 

He complied — he shut down the head office and branches in provinces, as well as dismissed all staff. And then he waited with patience on arrival of couriers from Astana to give him a green light to re-start Genezis. That did not happen.

Abiyed gathered his supporters in one of the Astana night-clubs and invited them to take a march towards Akorda. Different estimations show that some 300 men took part in that gathering. Dozens were taken in custody. Abiyev was taken in custody, as well.

Rumors began to circulate in our society that Abiyev attempted to repeat the January 2022 scenario. One of the suppositions is that he belongs with the team of Nursultan Nazarbayev’s Son-in-Law Timur Kulibayev. Another supposition is that he supports Kayrat Satypaldy. Conspiracy theory fans said it was act of revanchism of the Old Kazakhstan.

Society Are Tired of Shocks

We approached a famous Kazakh political observer Aidos Sarym with the above version and suppositions and asked for his vision of same.

— For the time being, I do not know to what particular clans or groups Abiyev has affiliation, but, one way or another, when he tries to pursue his own economic interests, or to draw the public attention to his personality, he fights on the revanchist side of barricades. His gathering could have developed into something negative.  In any case, the gathering was on the day of President’s inauguration and that, by itself, causes questions.

My take is, that they should begin a criminal investigation and look into it – the observer said – at the same time, I would like to discuss the following two things.  First – regardless how critical some of us are in relation to the regime in the office, the January 2022 events left their traumatic footprint in our souls.  We just do not want another January 2022.  And we must extend our most cordial gratitude to our police, for timely, professional and non-violent settlement of the situation, without resorting to special tools and equipment they had at their disposal.  Under severe frost, they localized the event in Astana and dispersed it.

Second consideration is purely political.  If some people in Kazakhstan have political ambition and want to take part in elections, or form their own political parties, they must, first, conform to certain things.  A politician, willing to be elected must not violate the law, including the Law Concerning Meetings.  A politician who pays penalties for violations of the law immediately loses the right to be elected, be it elections to local governments, local parliaments or the central Parliament itself.

Society must understand that a person summoning illegal meetings is a conscious subversive.  Such strategy implies consequences.  They should realize the responsibility that will follow. 

Strugatzky Brothers (popular Soviet science fiction novelists) expressed that in their “Heavy Burden Is To Be A God” novel.  One of the persons in that novel said – “I am not asking, whether this Law is good or bad, I am asking, whether it is duly exercised and conformed to”.  I think that is the key idea.  Do you not agree?  You are welcome to make it to the Parliament, win the hearts and minds of the majority and adopt those laws, you want!  The normal and honest political life is when a politician realizes the responsibility, while his supporters keep him away from wrong decisions, unwanted legal actions, court hearings and penalties, thus paving the way for future political campaigns. 

In Kazakhstan, the new elections are to take place on the known date.  We have adopted laws regulating political competition.  You can take part in elections, as an individual, not, necessarily, as a political party.  Presidential and parliamentary elections showed that our society does not want any more shocks, riots and destructions.  Time is gone for political hassle.  Now, we must robustly demand lawfulness, no matter how handsome, clever or righteous a politician is. You break the law, you get a penalty. The more penalties you pay, the closer to jail you get.   Those are normal rules of the game.  And let them not run to OSCE and international human rights organizations with their complaints.  We do not care.  We live in our own country, and nobody will draw us a great future, unless we ourselves do that.

— So, what, do you think, was Abiyev’s end-goal? Who stands behind him? They say, he is affiliated with Timur Kulibayev …

— As for Abiyev, our investigative bodies should think hard about his obviously subversive steps, especially in the light of the January 2022 events.  The Astana gathering he summoned only augments that belief.  A pre-trial investigation must look into the matter and give answers to questions raised in social networks and Telegram-channels. 

We can further elaborate on who stands behind Abiyev, but that is a subjective exercise.  People, who openly hate the family of the First President, will insist it was an act of revanchism.  Those who hate the present ruling regime will insist on something else.  The best option is to wait on the results of investigation.  That is much better, than constructing conspiracy theories and thus bringing society to another confusion.

— And do you think, Kulibayev needs all that?

— Any multi-billion business dislikes shocks and conflicts.  Trust me, people like Kulibayev have long time ago learned how to protect themselves and their businesses that extend all over the world with numerous firms and companies.  Kulibayev attended President Tokayev’s inauguration and there were no grievances expressed to him, except of social responsibility.

Yes, there are people who conceive in their heads some immature scenarios – with hangmen and gallows, fire execution squads, confiscation of property etc.  They fancy applying all that to a group of  particular names.  But the best option is when a person realizes his responsibility.

There is the privatization experience from the UK, when the Government imposed additional liabilities and obligations on companies.  And those companies did return some moneys back to people and then proceeded their existence.  That is something to be included into our future social convention.  Our President is a strong man, and nobody should consider him spineless.  Those who thought so, made a fatal mistake.  And some politicians, especially those from the camp of the so-called Democrats, should seriously think it over.