Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, experts predicted closer cooperation between the West and Kazakhstan. Now it can be asserted that the opposite has happened. According to foreign political scientists, Russia still influences Kazakhstan, and the policy of the new president is comparable to the approach of the previous one. This was stated by British researcher Kate Mallinson in her article published on the analytical website Chatham House.
All Lines of Fire
According to analyst Mallinson, the current president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, «lacks Nazarbayev’s authority in the bilateral relations of presidents.» She notes contradictions in the position of the current head of state. Initially, Kazakhstan publicly promised to comply with the sanctions imposed by the West on Russia, yet almost every time after Kazakh officials visit Washington, they immediately travel to Russia, where they outwardly support Putin.
The expert recalls that since the beginning of the war, Kazakhstan’s trade with Russia has reached record levels. According to the data provided, in 2022 the trade turnover amounted to 26 billion dollars, and in 2024 it will reach 27 billion. At the same time, half of all foreign companies in Kazakhstan are Russian.
Friendship of Convenience?
The analyst does not stop there: the same Caspian pipeline, through which 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil goes to the West, passes through the territory of the Russian Federation. Given the opportunity, the Kremlin has repeatedly blackmailed Western opponents by threatening to «cut off» the flow of fuel through its territory.
In addition, the President of Kazakhstan approved the sale of strategic licenses. As a result, Moscow gained control of 25% of uranium production in Kazakhstan. Moreover, at the end of 2022, the Russian state company «Rosatom» purchased 49% of the shares of two companies involved in one of the largest uranium deposits, Budyonnovskoye.
Kazakhstan and Russia have also come closer in the energy sector: the countries signed a contract for 6 billion dollars. Now Russia will build three thermal power plants in Kazakhstan.
At the same time, Kate Mallinson notes that the influence of the EU and the US is declining because Tokayev is looking for partners who are willing to finance various sectors of Kazakhstan unofficially, and there are many such partners in Russia. Thus, both countries can cooperate for decades.
Not New, but Renewed…
According to foreign experts, Nursultan Nazarbayev’s departure from state affairs has not significantly changed the old order in the country. In other words, the state apparatus is built on the same principle as before, and changes under the new government are insignificant.
In five years, only two significant events have occurred: Nazarbayev’s departure from the presidency in 2019 and the «bloody» January of 2022.
Western critics call the first moment a «managed transition.» Nazarbayev stepped down but retained the position of chairman of the Security Council and the «Nur Otan» party (now «Amanat»), and his relatives did as well.
Thus, disagreements in the elite circles led to the January events and, consequently, the «managed transition» was not successful.
What we have observed is the destruction of the Nazarbayev cult and the emergence of the idea of a «new Kazakhstan.» However, Western experts and Kazakhs alike find it difficult to say what is new about it.
Abroad, it is believed that Tokayev’s economic strategy is not much different from Nazarbayev’s. Moving away from oil dependence could indeed start a new era, but Kazakhstan still relies on revenue from raw material exports, as before.
