Farmers in Northern Kazakhstan are experiencing significant losses, signaling an impending economic downturn for the region, according to renowned agro-expert Kirill Pavlov.
Pavlov notes:
The grain sector in the country is on the brink of collapse. Kostanay is in a dire state, and so are its farmers, with some falling into prolonged despair.
This will result in fewer car sales, less activity at tech stores, and a slowdown in the trade of products like iPhones, televisions, apartments, and refrigerators. Revenues in cafes, restaurants, beauty salons, and dental clinics will also plummet.
Farmers are reporting losses ranging from 20,000 to 80,000 per hectare, averaging 50,000 per hectare.
I didn’t sow any crops this year; instead, I focused on soil preparation, and I hit the jackpot. The expenses for these agricultural activities are negligible compared to the losses suffered by farmers. You could say I was luckier than most.
The Agrarian Credit Corporation provides some respite, but next year, these sums will need to be repaid, resulting in an additional financial burden, along with interest for the extension. Moreover, the losses incurred this year must also be covered, and debts must be paid.
Where can one find the money for this? «KazAgroFinance,» acting as if they haven’t heard the President or the Prime Minister, is demanding payments from farmers.
So, where can the money be found for next year? Only through unofficial channels with loan sharks charging a minimum of 50% annual interest. Under such circumstances, anyone with crop yields below 25 quintals per hectare next year will go bankrupt.
For those who haven’t discovered any ‘gray schemes,’ bankruptcy is inevitable.
Land at Bargain Prices
Currently, Kyzyltu boasts numerous land parcels being sold on OLX (a classified advertisements website) for a pittance, such as 1,000 hectares for 10 million tenge or shared ownership deals. Meanwhile, Russians are scouting the area, exploring the option of acquiring a private limited company with a piece of land.
Furthermore, the issue of price and purchase by the Food Corporation of an absurdly small volume of 300,000 tons is laughable. Apparently, they will purchase from companies closely linked to them, while others are left to fend for themselves.
Grain is already being sold at 35 tenge. Elevators in the north are overflowing, while there is a shortage in other regions. There is no logistical capability for grain transfer. Some would be willing to burn the harvest in the fields, but the moisture levels prevent it.
In summary, the resilience of our agro-industrial complex (APK) is robust, but this year, there’s a substantial storm brewing. Furthermore, next year’s outlook is even more severe, with the addition of locusts, and the climate won’t be on our side either.»
