Falling Russian Ruble keeps concerning currency observers, particularly, how it will impact KZT.
Telegram-channel Art-Finanz reports that real consequences and implications from the falling RR will be seen in three months, while the present, transient fluctuations of same are of no significance:
“There are various opinions about falling RR. The fast and not very long-term of the Russian currency does not pose risks to Kazakh economy. Transient falls are more of a chance for speculators to buy or sell some gear. To be able to discuss serious risks, we must observe the weakening for one quarter, or 3 months.
Natural is, that the long-term fall will first hit Russian companies, dependent on minerals and raw materials imports. If they manage to continue to work, that will pose risks to Kazakh companies, especially those, that produce the same commodities, as those Russian companies.
The present falling will most likely be interrupted by a robust action taken by the Russian Central Bank. Those will be growing rates and telephone interceptions, i.e. when financial regulator calls banks and recommends them to abstain from panics.
We could make a moderate forecast, that RR will strengthen from present position, but shall not restore its earlier capacity.
I understand, that the further sanctions will weaken RR in the phased manner, which manner will help Russian companies adapt themselves to slowly aggravating terms and conditions for the RR.
Manufacturing companies are the most conservative segment of business, so they will consistently re-structure their supply chains.
Today, probably, the Russian Central Bank will increase its base rate and RR will easily stabilize at 85-90 RR for USD 1.
As for our economic authorities, they will need to prepare a package of measures regarding protection of our market”.
