Recently, the Coalition of Democratic Forces of Kazakhstan expressed opposition to the idea of early presidential elections and promised to summon protest meetings.  But in line with that they declared readiness to put forward their single candidate – for such a case, if they fail to cancel those elections, we think.

Society did not fully understand that Coalition’s move.  Even those supporting Democrats, could not understand what the hype was all about.

We addressed Bulat Abilov, one of Kazakh oppositional politicians.  He gave us an interview, but next day he resiled from his statements. Looks like, he just got lost in and confused by his own numerous speeches.

Meanwhile, the Amanat Party put forward their presidential candidate – Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev, the present Head of State. Amirzhan Kosanov is another person declaring willingness to run for the office of the President of Kazakhstan.

Ex-Communists refused to take part in elections. Ak Zhol are still thinking. And, there is a couple of independent candidacies. 

We asked Aidos Sarym, a famous politician and MP, questions about chances for the above persons to succeed and how, in general, this political autumn looks like.

Bull Feces!

— Aidos, in your last public address, you said you were stepping down from the post of a MP, claiming you wanted to give younger politicians a fair go.  You are 47 years old, and you appear to be a young politician, that is why your words sounded somewhat intriguing.  Did they promise you career in the New Kazakhstan, or did you decide to join opposition?

— No. Who said I am leaving?  I was asked a question whether I was ready to give the way to the youth.  I said yes, because in two years we had done a lot.  Even from the perspective of human history, we really did a lot in those two years.   It is a rare luck for political person – I took part in the making of laws and it is unlikely that those laws will be changed soon.

I will put it like this – some of my “friends and fans” very much want me to resign.  In any case, I will take part in the election campaign and in the work of the election HQ. I would like to see strong people in the Parliament.

If my Party deem it necessary for myself to be a part of the next Majilis, I will make a de facto decision.  At present, I am most confident that we will win, I have no doubt about it. All those talks that Amanat will not take seats and nobody will support Amanat – that is bull feces!

The Party has its firm position in the ratings and a solid community of supporters.  Just pay attention to how the party operated to help those suffering in the Kostanay fires.  Things may not be measured through the prism of cozy coffee-bars in Almaty or virtual pages on the Facebook.  That is wishful thinking. 

Our Elders are Bairns, by Kazakh Measure

—  Will you agree that some MPs have served 2 or 3 terms, some of them are lifetime MPs?  Is it not the high time for them to give ways to the youth?

— That is not too much.  Biden, for example, was a Senator for 7 terms, that is 35 years.  If you pay considerate attention to lists of representatives from both Republicans and Democrats, you will find many alike, people serving 6 or even 7 terms.  Compared to them, our MPs are bairns.

Not So Big For Them Boots!

— What are comments about declarations made by Coalition of Democratic Forces, formed by Abilov? We remember, that the opposition made two attempts to pack-up, but those ventures were fiascos?  How long, do you think, this Coalition, will last?

— I know that cuisine and its chefs.  Things depend on the magnitude of the chef managing that mess facility.  Coalition headed by Tuyakbay was connected with the now deceased Altynbek Sarsenbayev.  That guy knew how to break the toughest among those most ambitious.  The second important factor is availability of funds.

You know, we all may have highest ambitions possible, and many people are willing to form their own parties, but most of them shall fall in oblivion after the very first press-conference.

From the hip, I can calculate that it will take USD 4 to 5 million a year to fund a party in Kazakhstan, and that is my roughest minimum.  And that sum does not include elections and other affairs.  I am only discussing salaries to be paid to people in provinces and communities, funds for some activities, for rent, vehicles, IT, information bulletins and others.

I know this country has a lot of money.  A portion of those moneys may be provisionally called “Old Kazakh” or “Revanchist”.  But even with that taken into consideration, it appears to me that only three or four new parties may realistically emerge in Kazakhstan.

Other parties will either seek ways to market themselves, for as much as possible, or create something similar to the Coalition of Democratic Forces. 

You probably remember that famous phrase, Stalin once said – “How many divisions does Pope in Vatican have?”  Something of the kind once said Napoleon – God is always on the side of big battalions.

At their press-conference, the Coalition of Democratic Forces claimed they would bring all their supporters out in the streets.  I think, they should first seek official permission to run a public gathering, and then summon all their supporters.  And, then we will see how many of them will actually come.

I would even advise that they put different T-shirts and hats on, so that we know – these people vote Abilov, those – Mamay, and those — Bapi.

In South Korea they have a very good practice of color differentiation of political parties.  When those parties run some events, they attend same in their colors.  I think, something of the kind could be applied in our practices.  Thus, we will see how many supporters each activist realistically has.

In the world of sports, you just cannot come to a press-conference and declare – “I am a wrestling world champion!”  Same is here.  Let us have ourselves some normal race.  And we will see, which one of those persons is serious, and which ones are motormouths.

Democrats and Their Gathering Are Old Kazakhstan

—  On one side, Abilov called for cancellation of early presidential elections, deeming them unconstitutional.  On the other hand, he offered to elect a single candidate representing Coalition.  Where is the logic here?

— Those statements indicate at immaturity of the person.  Abilov, is, sort of, a veteran of politics…but he must realize that such statements disorient people.  American political science has a term – Political Animal.  That is somebody craving elections, a person calibrated to surf in the world of political processes, the one who seeks battle, conflicts, elections, etc. etc.  .

Churchill, Roosevelt, Kennedy, Obama, Clinton – those are the best examples of political animals. 

As for Bulat Abilov, he should have said something like –

We got people, supporters and we got funds.  We will take part in all sorts of elections, be those elections to the posts of village, or district or town Governors.  We are ready to find candidates, and go persuade masses, we want power

The situation, when activists fancy themselves in the office of the President, at the same time ignoring other layers of the power, is silly and infantile. 

— What do you think their chances are?

— If we say, we do not care who will run and be put forward, things are clear.  Today, our ruling regime does not have motivation to gather 90 or 80% of the votes.  Enough would be to gather  50% plus one vote to win.

I think, President Tokayev has more or less verified data from referendum showing that society support his course of action.  And in case he runs a quiet, well-weighted and pragmatic campaign, the situation will change – not only for the regime, but for the so-called opposition, as well. 

We hear many grievances, that the ruling regime consists of representatives of “Old Kazakhstan”.  But those people in the Coalition – are they not from “Old Kazakhstan”, too?

Younger generation with political ambitions simply ignored the Coalition and its gatherings.  And they were totally right, doing so. 

Quit Playing Insurgency Game

— Old opposition deem it illegal that the new, 7-year, term of presidency was established. 

—  Some people asked myself, whether that new term was the President’s tempo-battle. I said that our President was a politician.  Each politician, by default, shall think how to think ahead of his opponents.  That is a normal game rule. 

The same shall be practiced in France, or Germany, or Japan, or any other country.  And getting angry on things done ahead of time or some deadlines is silliness and infantilism. Tokayev was looking for a new context, and he found it.  The recent referendum guaranteed that. 

I keep a considerate eye on all sorts of publications and public speeches.  I attentively read digests of statements made by famous persons in social media.  The picture of the history is drawn every day. Back in the 90-s I sensed that process of the making of the history.  Today, I experience a déjà vu.  The same situation, when every day the history and the political context undergo changes.

I would like those opposing the ruling regime, to come to understanding of that déjà vu.  Recently I gave an interview to Ratel.kz and told them a joke about an old insurgent, who spent 30 years in the woods, blasting the railroads, because he did not know that Hitler had already killed himself and his cronies had been trialed in Nurnberg.

Our so-called oppositionists are those insurgents lost in the woods.  They fight ghost enemies, they oppose the Nazarbayev regime, which today, de facto, is dismantled to full.  Facts, like cancellation of the celebration of the Day of the First President, as well as the upcoming cancellation of the Law Concerning Yelbasi-Leader of Nation only support that. 

One regime substitutes the previous one, while Abilov and his associates still live in the 20^th century, with old insults and angers. 

Nelson Mandela said that feeling angry and furious is like drinking poison, hoping it will kill your enemies.

Opposition does not offer new narratives and new senses.  No new faces, either.  I do not even expect that they will produce some exceptional leader capable of outplaying Tokayev in two or three rounds of elections.  That is something that I totally do not expect.

After the events that took place in the beginning of 2022, some kind of the January Consensus came into existence.  That Consensus is that society does not want radical solutions.  People do not want to hear gunshots in the streets.  People do not want the institution of the state and public governance to disappear, as a phenomenon.  Regardless, how much they love or hate that system, they want it to exist.

We can have all sorts of political and economic ambitions, we may dream about Nobel Prize and something else.  But once our people suffer from lack of heat, electricity and other conveniences, other things become senseless.

Events in Ukraine show the instable condition of everything in this world.  Today, we have high demand in order and security.

The moods have changed.  Out of all political elements, people prefer social and economic affairs.  People more worry about prices and personal security.

Kosanov’s Come-Back?

— What is your assessment of Amirzhan Kosanov’s declaration of intention to run for the office of the President? Is he again stepping on the good old booby-trap? Will protesting masses trust him this time?

— Depends on him. I will be honest – ourselves and our families are friends.  We always had good level of understanding in between us.  I know he has understated a big time.  It is just those social networks – they do not give you opportunity to make a full-fledged statement.  I guess he has the desire to take part in elections.  Probably he wants to achieve the same popularity rating, as he once had.  He has his own explanation as to what happened.

Presidential elections – that is the highest grandstand possible.  We know that in our culture we do not appreciate penance.  But in the history, there were situations when politicians would come back, recommission themselves, reboot etc.  Why not?  If you succeed, that is great, if you fail, you gain experience. 

No Alternative To Tokayev I See!

— Recently, Arman Shurayev made a suggestion to put forward Yermurat Bapi as a single presidential candidacy.  What are Bapi’s chances?

— In 2008, during the Zhana Kazakhstan engineering project, we met Akezhan Kezhegeldin and his colleagues in Brussels.  Some people then had all chances to pass the first round of elections.  Those were Amirzhan Kosanov, Rasul Zhumaly and Yours Truly.  Yermurat Bapi had all chances, as well.  The fact that he worked in state governance and state Mass Media does add him scores, that is true. 

If he worked in Comsomol, or some party or a trade union, that work may be assessed as a publicly elected post.  As for Arman Shurayev, regardless attitudes to him, he, prior to making that suggestion, had talks with many people.  His suggestion was not a spontaneous gag.  He exchanged opinions on the matter and made conclusions.

 As for me, I do not believe that Bapi or someone else could constitute a realistic alternative to the present President.  That is my honest opinion, with all due respect to others and with many years of communication with them taken in account. 

I think, some 20-30 individuals will express wish to go for the first round.  Eventually, some 7 to 8 will remain.  We will see.