According to Daniyar Ashimbayev, the government is preparing us for a political decision — to raise the prices for autogas. He wrote about this in his Telegram channel.

Vicious Circle

In the capital, there was a problem with a shortage of liquefied gas for a couple of days. Gas stations switched to a coupon system. The city administration immediately reported that «due to repair works being carried out in October at the Atyrau plant, and the heavy workload of the plants of Pavlodar Refinery and CNPC-Aktobemunaygas, there is a deficit of autogas in Astana.»

In response, «KazMunayGas» clarified that «in October of this year, 7,452 tons of fuel were allocated to meet the needs of the city of Astana, including from Pavlodar Refinery — 1,980 tons and CNPC-Aktobemunaygas (not part of the KMG group) — 5,472 tons. The specified volume from Pavlodar Refinery was delivered in full. LPG for the needs of the capital from Atyrau Refinery has historically not been directed.»

In the national company, they clarified that «planned preventive maintenance at Atyrau Refinery does not affect the LPG market of Astana, as the plant traditionally supplies this type of fuel to consumers in Atyrau, Mangystau, West Kazakhstan, and Kostanai regions.» The Director of the Department of the Gas Industry of the Ministry of Energy «shifted the blame» to the railway workers: «Shipments from plants are carried out around the clock. However, delivery from the plant to the recipient takes time for transportation, which is carried out by KTZ, and due to this, there are interruptions in the liquefied gas market. The situation will stabilize in the coming days.»

KTZ responded sharply: «All cargo shippers’ applications are fulfilled by NC ‘KTZ’ 100%, the volumes are transported, and there are reserves of empty tankers for loading for several days ahead. Thus, in October, 140 thousand tons of LNG were delivered to all regions, the plan was fulfilled 100%. In November… the plan fulfillment is 107%. Delivery times are affected by the uneven, individual, and counter loading of gas by shippers in regions. NC ‘KTZ’ has repeatedly pointed out the necessity for the authorized body, the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, to take exhaustive measures to normalize logistics, but to date, no appropriate measures have been taken. In addition, the Ministry of Energy, together with the regional akimats, needed to work out the allocation of sufficient quotas for gas shipment. Thus, in October, due to the repair of Atyrau Refinery and the untimely adjustment of quotas, there were interruptions with providing applications for LNG shipment to such regions as Shymkent, Astana, Kyzylorda, and Atyrau.»

A vicious cycle has emerged, which essentially points to the regulator and the akimats. The Ministry of Energy promises to cover the current deficit, but there is an even more serious problem.

Problems with planning and accountability

The Head of the Marketing Department of Oil Products at KMG explained the gas deficit issues:

«Currently, the mechanism of retail pricing in Kazakhstan stimulates the consumption of liquefied gas. However, we must acknowledge that the volumes of gas production are limited across the republic… The current level of retail prices for liquefied gas does not cover the costs of its extraction and production… It is practically impossible to increase the volume of liquefied gas production. And considering the price regulation measures, increasing its production is economically inefficient.» The Head of the Ministry of Energy recently informed the residents of the capital: «We do not recommend all car owners to switch their vehicles to liquefied petroleum gas because the price will definitely increase. We will not allow sharp price jumps, but nevertheless, the volumes of modernization will contribute to this. If there is a deficit, we will have to remove it from export. Then the price will already be at export levels.» Price increases – a political issue. And now, it seems, there are problems with planning and organizing the supply process. And as usual – with accountability…