Ukraine proved they can bring the war to the territory of Russia.  Russian ineffective, if not failed, offensives on Ulgedar and Bahmut only proved that.  Russian armed forces are now preparing themselves to a Ukrainian counter-offensive campaign.  All of that is because earlier Putin rejected the Ukraine Peace Plan. 

A famous Russian analyst Valeriy Solovey discusses the above in the course of an interview given to globalnews.kz

Mr. Valeriy Dmitriyevich Solovey is a Russian Historian, Political Observer, Publicist and Public Activist.  History Doctor.  Professor and Head of Chair of Advertisement and Public Relations at the Moscow State Institute of Foreign Affairs in 2007-2019. Some of Mr. Solovey’s forecasts regarding the re-shuffling exercises in the Russian leadership proved to be true.  Professor Solovey was right, when stating that Russia would unwind a military confrontation with Ukraine.  Mr. Solovey was the source of the talks about the deterioration of Vladimir Putin’s health condition and later those talks were reproduced by numerous Russian and English-speaking Mass Media. 

Ineffective Russian Resistance

— Mr. Solovey, allow me to begin this conversation with a topical and highly publicized event, which was the break-through of a raiding force into the Byransk Oblast of Russia.  What was it?  Who and for what purpose needed such a demonstrative or provocative raid? Who, do You think, stand behind the organization of the “Russian Nationalists” fighting on the side of Ukraine?  What are their goals?

— The raid performed by the so-called “raiding force” of the so-called “Russian Volunteer Corps” into the territory of the Bryansk Oblast of Russia was in pursuit of objectives of not as much military, as propagandistic, political and symbolic nature.  Its sense was to demonstrate to “Urbi Et Orbi” that there was the armed resistance to the present Russian ruling regime among the Russian nationals.  Yes, let those Russian be in Ukraine today and let them be organized under the aegis of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, although they position themselves as a standalone detachment, nevertheless – those people are particularly Russian resistance.  Will they achieve their goals? To my mind, no. That is why, in the eyes of broad masses those events looked like a terrorist attack.  Russian official Mass Media discussed that event, as nothing else, but an act of terrorism.  That is particularly why, from the political and symbolistic standpoint, that raid failed to achieve and could not achieve any goals set by its organizers.

— In the light of the Bryansk events, how would you assess the outcome of the Russian Security Council meeting that followed? What is your view on the present tactics of Kremlin in the zone of the battle contact in Ukraine?

— Judging by the fact, that the meeting of the Security Council was postponed for the day, following the raid, it appears that the information that the Russian ruling regime were receiving, was of rather contradictive character, and it appeared impossible for the regime to make any conclusions “on hot scents”. 

But when the picture grew clearer, the Security Council assessed that event as the one of low level of significance, and the threat was assessed, as immaterial.  That is, actually, why no decisions were made in connection with the discussed raid. 

Another thing is, that, because the representatives of the so-called “Russian Volunteer Corps” associate themselves with the Russian Nationalists, although there are no nationalistic organizations existing in Russia today, except of subculture and people embracing the nationalistic cause, those particular people will now find themselves in trouble.  Now, the security bodies may perform a repressive onslaught on them.

Ukrainian Attacks Reach Moscow

— Do you think, that drone attacks against Russia, Crimea and Belarus were an act of symbolism with the purpose to show the weakness and the vulnerability of their Anti-Air Defense Systems? Why does not regime in Kyiv officially admit their involvement in those attacks and is there any probability that intelligence agencies of the “Collective West” were also involved in that?

— Emergence of those drones in Russia, Crimea and Belarus was, of course, in many instances, a gesture of political symbolism. It was some sort of a proof that Ukraine were capable of bringing the battle to the territory of the Russian Federation, into the Russian strategic inland. 

The latter became clear on the 28^th of February, when we suddenly found out the Russian strategic inland could be inclusive of the Russian capital city, as well.  That was an extremely important moment.  Because, from the military point of view, the Ukrainian drones already had performed some sensitive attacks against a number of Russian military infrastructure facilities and installments, particularly – airdromes that turned out to be not very well protected.

Why will not Kyiv official assume responsibility for those attacks?  In fact, they are not hiding that, and everybody knows that those were particularly Armed Forces of Ukraine that stood behind those attacks.   Kyiv’s official position may be explained by the logic dictated by the initial phase of the Russo-Ukrainian armed confrontation.  When Kyiv received military assistance and aid, there was this provision, that Kyiv would not use received weapons to attack the Russian territory.  But because those attacks were performed and the West looks at them with benign neglect, if not with open encouragement, Ukraine proceed to neither admit, nor deny their involvement.  But, at the same time, all is clear. 

Western intelligence agencies provide some significant volumes of information to the leadership of Ukraine, and that information is inclusive of some pieces of rather sensitive character. The way Ukrainians use that information is at their own discretion, and the West do not very much interfere in that process.

Russia Getting Ready for Ukrainian Counter-Offensive

— How, do You think the situation will develop in the battlefront in the nearest several months?

— To my mind, the decisive military events will take place in spring and/or summer.  It is very much alike that the widely-debated massive Russian offensive ended without even starting.  Fiercest battles are taking place for Bahmut and in the direction of Ugledar.

The factual lack of onslaught is, probably, because the Russian commanding officers are now getting ready for a Ukrainian counter-offensive.

The main task, in advance of the active operations by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, is to preserve the remains of the Russian war machinery and to hoard those more or less qualified and professionally trained soldiers that still exist in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Russia.

Rejected Peace Plan

— Based on Your knowledge – did Western countries propose any peace plan to Moscow? How viable was that plan and why did Kremlin reject it? What and who can change the course of this war – heavy war machinery from Western countries, or initiatives put forward by European leaders or China?

— I know that Western countries, USA, first of all, made two attempts through intermediaries to put forward a peace plan before Moscow.  That plan was inclusive of several points.

First of all, Russia were to leave the so-called “new territories”.

Secondly, Russia were to gradually leave Donbas, while Crimea was to become a disputed territory and there were supposed to be negotiations regarding its status.

Thirdly, Ukraine were to abstain from joining NATO, at least, for a certain period of time.

Among other points, we may mention the demilitarization of the Russo-Ukrainian and Russo-Belorussian borders.  Russia were suggested to keep some border-patrol detachments and light armaments, the ones that could not be used for offensive operations, at the distance of 100 to 150 kilometers from the state borderlines.  The Black Sea Navy of Russia were supposed to leave their base in Crimea for the period of negotiations regarding the status of the peninsula.

In those propositions, there were points envisioning the prompt restoration of economic ties with Europe, partial lifting of sanctions and the main thing – guarantees of personal security and freedom to Russian ruling elites, as well as preservation of their assets.

Putin was the one who rejected that plan.  The plan turned out to be absolutely unacceptable for him.

— How can this military conflict end – nuclear strike, peace talks, enforcement of Russia to peace?  Can Kazakhstan act as an intermediary in negotiations, likewise within the framework of the Astana Format for Syria?

— To my mind, possible are all options enumerated in Your question:  nuclear strike, peace talks and enforcement of Russia to peace.

The decisive factor will be the military dynamics of the conflict.

If Russian Armed Forces sustain a smashing defeat, our agenda will have a new question, i.e. the usage of a tactical nuclear weapon. But, again, its usage will pursue more of symbolic and demonstrational objectives, rather than military goals (it is unlikely, that a tactical nuclear strike will help to implement  big-scale military tasks).

It is hard to imagine, that given such a situation, Astana could take the role of an intermediary between Russia and Ukraine, or Moscow and “Collective West”.  Kazakhstan does not possess sufficient weight for that.

To be continued