Paris explores ways to closer cooperation with minerals-abundant Central Asia.

Bloomberg reports that, finding itself suddenly unwelcome in its traditional sphere of influence, France is actively searching for an alternative (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-31/macron-lands-in-putin-s-backyard-seeking-new-friends-and-uranium#xj4y7vzkg). That’s why President Emmanuel Macron is heading to resource-rich Central Asia this week to visit Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan—two suppliers of uranium that fuel France’s nuclear reactors.

The trip aims to enhance France’s energy security, according to two individuals familiar with the French President’s views, who declined to disclose their names when discussing diplomatic matters. These efforts are in line with broader European endeavors to diversify away from Russian fossil fuels, which the bloc previously heavily relied on.

However, there is a second motive, which involves tempting the former Soviet republics to step beyond dependency on Russia. French officials suggest that the war in Ukraine has disrupted long-established relationships in the region, creating new opportunities.

Uranium Recovery

In 2022, Kazakhstan mined 43% of global stocks of Uranium.  The chart below demonstrates Uranium recovery by countries.  Bloomberg used data from source – World Nuclear Association

Central Asia’s vast reserves of oil, gas, and minerals have placed it at the heart of a struggle for influence in a region that has traditionally been a stronghold for Russia. China is extending its reach through President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road infrastructure initiative, the United States aims to bolster its political presence, while the European Union seeks to connect the region into a trade and energy corridor that would lead into Europe, bypassing Russia via the Caucasus.

France can already boast significant investments in the region; for example, the French nuclear company Orano SA, formerly known as Areva, is developing uranium deposits in Kazakhstan through a joint venture with the state company Kazatomprom. According to one of the insiders in the delegation who wished to remain anonymous when discussing trip details, deepening Orano’s presence will be on the list of issues to be discussed.

Compelled Move

France’s pursuit of uranium has become even more critical following the coup in Niger this July, which was the second-largest source of raw materials in the EU after Kazakhstan last year (https://euratom-supply.ec.europa.eu/activities/market-observatory_en). Orano company was forced to halt uranium ore processing at one of its Sahara facilities as international sanctions against the military junta made logistics difficult, the company said last month.

«Kazakhstan is key to France’s energy security,» said Michael Levistone, a researcher at the Paris Institute of International Relations. «Macron’s visit will serve as a reminder that Paris is ready to step up cooperation.»

According to the French Ministry of the Economy, last year Kazakhstan not only became the largest supplier of uranium to France but also the second-largest source of crude oil, having dropped from first place in 2021.

According to a diplomat familiar with the leaders of the «Group of Seven,» Kazakhstan, inspired by the invasion of Ukraine and driven by deeper concerns about China’s advancement, is one of the few countries where, earlier this year, the G7 countries jointly decided to deepen their partnership.

This means that by courting landlocked republics squeezed between China and Russia, Macron is part of a broader trend.

According to an EU statement about this meeting (https://international-partnerships.ec.europa.eu/news-and-events/news/eu-central-asia-19th-ministerial-meeting-held-luxembourg-23-october-2023-2023-10-23_en), last week the foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan met for the first time with the foreign ministers of the 27 EU member states, and in September, President Joe Biden met with their leaders on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. In the same month, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosted them in Berlin.

Dual Attitude

In France’s case, such initiatives are undertaken as it grapples with increasingly limited room for maneuver in its traditional sphere of influence. Since 2020, coups in nine sub-Saharan countries have sent French diplomats home, and in some cases, the threat to French interests has come from Russia in the form of the Wagner mercenary group.

Macron’s search for allies on Russia’s periphery is facilitated by the ambivalent attitudes of Central Asian countries towards the war in Ukraine. As they formally comply with Western sanctions against Russia, at least on paper, his trip from November 1st to 2nd will take place just as the commercial relationships of these countries themselves are in flux.

According to a representative of the Élysée Palace, the French President will travel with a delegation of 15 business leaders from the energy, agri-food, and mining sectors, including utility company Electricite de France SA and engineering firm Assystem SA, which provides expertise for the construction of nuclear reactors.

They have surely noticed the plans of Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to hold a referendum on a nuclear power plant, which would reduce the country’s dependence on fossil fuels.

Kazakhstan also plans to start mining rare earth metals next year, while Macron has called for France to be less dependent on Chinese raw materials, which are crucial for the European electric vehicle industry.

Despite this, earlier this year, the President of France made a state visit to China, highlighting a strategy of distancing from the more hawkish US stance towards Beijing and in line with his attempts to expand France’s influence in Asia.

Recently, Macron became the first French president to visit Mongolia and then signed an agreement to purchase more uranium, and at least for a year, he became the first French leader to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit with countries from the Asia-Pacific region.