Kazakhstan will run roads bypassing Russia, while Russia will build roads to bypass Kazakhstan. Adil Kaukenov, famous orientalist, is sure that all those “bypasses” are myths from geopoliticians.

Mr. Kaukenov’s telegram channel:

One topic that always runs hypes is roads to be built contrary to somebody’s political will. Once,  I shared opinion on the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railroad, which road, running thousand of kilos away from Russia through countries that do not border Russia still are called by some pseudo-analysts roads built to bypass Russia.

That is a strange idea. Former USSR is a territory that is not abundant in roads. We are all running low on roads, while existing ones are mess.

Same ideas orbit around the sea infrastructure between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, which potential project also has a sigh of “bypassism”. Those discussing that, do not show any signs of attempts to think about how Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan should develop mutual trade.

Bypassing Kazakhstan

They have been discussing extensively a new road from Russia to China via Altay. The coating of those discussion is that Russia shall do so, to bypass Kazakhstan for its multi-vector foreign policy.

Now, that is one absurdity. First of all, such project never existed. Once in a while, Russian raise the issue of that road and this is it. And they did so long before the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, but eventually all individuals in executive posts of Russia rejected it. As for China, nobody ever raised it there.

Why Is Altay Route Not an Option?

There are several serious reasons why. Not only because it is 1000 kilos longer, compared to it it ran via Kazakhstan. Altay is all about mountains. Road construction there will cost zillions. 

Besides, due to inevitable damage to ecology, environmentalists are Banzai against it. 

The future road will run through sacral places, and that will outrage locals. One good example of that was the excavation of the Ukok Princess, which act triggered social split, protests and litigations.

Trans-Siberian is Still Running

Russia already has direct line to China – the Trans-Siberian Rail Mains with a motor-vehicle road running parallel to it. That is a strategic communication, that not only connects Russia and China, but Russia’s Asian and European parts. 

Trans-Siberian needs modernization, by the way, so they need to invest into something, why do not they.  Besides, why nobody refers to it, as a project “bypassing Kazakhstan”.

There is a promising project – China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor, but it develops uneasily, although it is not associated with numerous fundamental problems, likewise is Altay Route. And, nobody criticizes Mongolia for promotion of its own economic interests.

Geopolitics Contra

Because of disruption of relations between Russia and West, there no longer are chances that Russia and Europe will have the full-fledged inshore transit traffic. Actually, earlier, said traffic was one big question, as naval forwarding is far cheaper. Now, that sanctions were are being dropped, talks about traffic are senseless.

So, the more roads, the better. Roads never run to bypass a country. They do not exist in vacuum, they become parts of greater common infrastructure and they contribute into improvement of competitive characteristics of the whole region. 

That is why, although Altay Route is doable, our country does not percept construction of rails, highways, ports and other facilities, as a problem. Kazakhstan views them as opportunities to improve the pricing processes for Kazakh logistics companies and encouragement of competition.

Stories like “Russia bypasses Kazakhstan” or “Kazakhstan bypasses Russia” are parts of Infowars. They are meant to unfriend Kazakhstan and Russia and create attention around alleged transport confrontation, which confrontation is nothing but a ghost. We just have to guess who benefits from those ghosts.